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Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Della Corte, P 
Ramadorai, T 

Abstract

© 2016. We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium-the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility-reflects the costs of insuring against currency volatility fluctuations. The strategy sells high insurance-cost currencies and buys low insurance-cost currencies. A distinctive feature of the strategy's returns is that they are mainly generated by movements in spot exchange rates instead of interest rate differentials. We explore explanations for the profitability of the strategy, which cannot be understood using traditional risk factors.

Description

Keywords

Exchange Rates, Volatility Risk Premium, Predictability, Minimum-Variance Currency Portfolio

Journal Title

Journal of Financial Economics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0304-405X

Volume Title

120

Publisher

Elsevier BV