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dc.contributor.authorRowthorn, R
dc.contributor.authorMaciejowski, J
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-25T23:30:12Z
dc.date.available2020-06-25T23:30:12Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn0266-903X
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/307272
dc.description.abstract<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The British government has been debating how to escape from the lockdown without provoking a resurgence of the COVID-19 disease. There is a growing recognition of the damage the lockdown has caused to economic and social life. This paper presents a simple cost–benefit analysis inspired by optimal control theory and incorporating the SIR model of disease propagation. It also reports simulations informed by the theoretical discussion. The optimal path for government intervention is computed under a variety of conditions. These include a cap on the permitted level of infection to avoid overload of the health system, and the introduction of a test and trace system. We quantify the benefits of early intervention to control the disease. We also examine how the government’s valuation of life influences the optimal path. A 10-week lockdown is only optimal if the value of life for COVID-19 victims exceeds £10m. The study is based on a standard but simple epidemiological model, and should therefore be regarded as presenting a methodological framework rather than giving policy prescriptions.</jats:p>
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)
dc.rightsAll rights reserved
dc.titleA cost-benefit analysis of the COVID-19 disease
dc.typeArticle
prism.endingPageS55
prism.publicationDate2020
prism.publicationNameOxford Review of Economic Policy
prism.startingPageS38
prism.volume36
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.54369
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-06-22
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1093/oxrep/graa030
rioxxterms.versionAM
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2020-01-01
dc.contributor.orcidMaciejowski, Jan [0000-0001-8281-8364]
dc.identifier.eissn1460-2121
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
cam.issuedOnline2020-08-29
cam.orpheus.counter5
rioxxterms.freetoread.startdate2023-06-25


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