Models for Converging Economies
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Authors
Harvey, Andrew C.
Carvalho, Vasco
Publication Date
2004-06-16Series
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
Publisher
Faculty of Economics
Language
en_GB
Type
Working Paper
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Harvey, A. C., & Carvalho, V. (2004). Models for Converging Economies. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.5026
Abstract
The aim of this article is the development of models for converging economies. After discussing models of balanced growth, univariate models of the gap between per capital income in two economies are examined. The preferred models combine unobserved components with an error correction mechanism and allow a decomposition into trend, cycle and convergence components. A new type of second-order error correction mechanism is shown to be particularly useful in this respect. The levels of per capita income in two economies may be modelled jointly by bivariate convergence models. These models generalise balanced growth models and can be based on autoregressive or unobserved components formulations. Both approaches provide coherent forecasts but the unobserved components models also yield a description of trends, cycles and convergence components. The methods are applied to data on the US and Japan. The generalisation to multivariate series is then set out.
Keywords
cycles, balanced growth, error correction mechanism, stochastic trend, unobserved components, Classification-JEL: C32, O40
Identifiers
This record's DOI: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.5026
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