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Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections


Type

Working Paper

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Authors

Ahmed, R. 
Pesaran, M. H. 

Abstract

This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at the U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It exploits cross-section variations across U.S. counties and investig

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Keywords

Voter Turnout, Popular and Electoral College Votes, Simultaneity and Recursive Identification, High Dimensional Forecasting Models, Lasso, OCMT

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Publisher

Faculty of Economics & Cambridge-INET Institute, University of Cambridge

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