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dc.contributor.authorPesaran, M. H.
dc.contributor.authorYang, C. F.
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-17T11:40:51Z
dc.date.available2020-12-17T11:40:51Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-11
dc.identifier.otherCWPE20102
dc.identifier.otherC-INET2048
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/315206
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic models. These moment conditions are used to investigate identification and estimation of recovery and transmission rates. The paper then proposes simple moment-based rolling estimates and shows them to be fairly robust to the well-known under-reporting of infected cases. Empirical evidence on six European countries match the simulated outcomes, once the under-reporting of infected cases is addressed. It is estimated that the number of reported cases could be between 3 to 9 times lower than the actual numbers. Counterfactual analysis using calibrated models for Germany and UK show that early intervention in managing the infection is critical in bringing down the reproduction numbers below unity in a timely manner.
dc.publisherFaculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCambridge Working Papers in Economics
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCambridge-INET Working Paper Series
dc.rightsAll Rights Reserved
dc.rights.urihttps://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectmultigroup SIR model
dc.subjectbasic and effective reproduction numbers
dc.subjectrolling window estimates of the transmission rate
dc.subjectmethod of moments
dc.subjectcalibration and counterfactual analysis
dc.titleMatching Theory and Evidence on Covid-19 using a Stochastic Network SIR Model
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.62315


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