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Exchange rates and sovereign risk

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Della Corte, P 
Schmeling, M 
Wagner, C 

Abstract

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.

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Keywords

Journal Title

Management Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0025-1909

Volume Title

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Christian Wagner acknowledges support from the Center for Financial Frictions (FRIC), grant no. DNRF102
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