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Estimating the Population Benefits of Blood Pressure Lowering: A Wide-Angled Mendelian Randomization Study in UK Biobank.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Abstract

Background The causal relevance of elevated blood pressure for several cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is uncertain, as is the population impact of blood pressure lowering. This study systematically assesses evidence of causality for various CVDs in a 2-sample Mendelian randomization framework, and estimates the potential reduction in the prevalence of these diseases attributable to long-term population shifts in the distribution of systolic blood pressure (SBP). Methods and Results We investigated associations of genetically predicted SBP as predicted by 256 genetic variants with 21 CVDs in UK Biobank, a population-based cohort of UK residents. The sample consisted of 376 703 participants of European ancestry, aged 40 to 69 years at recruitment. Genetically predicted SBP was positively associated with 14 of the outcomes (P<0.002), including dilated cardiomyopathy, endocarditis, peripheral vascular disease, and rheumatic heart disease. Using genetic variation to estimate the long-term impact of blood pressure lowering on disease in a middle-aged to early late-aged UK-based population, population reductions in SBP were predicted to result in an overall 16.9% (95% CI, 12.2%-21.3%) decrease in morbidity for a 5-mm Hg decrease from a population mean of 137.7 mm Hg, 30.8% (95% CI, 22.8%-38.0%) decrease for a 10-mm Hg decrease, and 56.2% (95% CI, 43.7%-65.9%) decrease for a 22.7-mm Hg decrease in SBP (22.7 mm Hg represents a shift from the current mean SBP to 115 mm Hg). Conclusions Risk of many CVDs is influenced by long-term differences in SBP. The burden of a broad range of CVDs could be substantially reduced by long-term population-wide reductions in the distribution of blood pressure.

Description

Keywords

Mendelian randomization, cardiovascular disease, genetic epidemiology, high blood pressure, hypertension, Adult, Aged, Biological Specimen Banks, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Causality, Genome-Wide Association Study, Humans, Hypertension, Mendelian Randomization Analysis, Middle Aged, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Risk Factors, United Kingdom

Journal Title

J Am Heart Assoc

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2047-9980
2047-9980

Volume Title

10

Publisher

Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Sponsorship
European Commission and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) FP7 Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) (116074)
Wellcome Trust (204623/Z/16/Z)
National Institute for Health and Care Research (IS-BRC-1215-20014)
British Heart Foundation (None)
British Heart Foundation (CH/12/2/29428)
British Heart Foundation (RG/18/13/33946)
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00002/7)
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