Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens.
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Authors
Glennon, Emma E
Bruijning, Marjolein
Lessler, Justin
Miller, Ian F
Rice, Benjamin L
Thompson, Robin N
Wells, Konstans
Metcalf, C Jessica E
Publication Date
2021-12Journal Title
Epidemics
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
37
Number
100516
Pages
100516-100516
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AM
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Glennon, E. E., Bruijning, M., Lessler, J., Miller, I. F., Rice, B. L., Thompson, R. N., Wells, K., & et al. (2021). Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens.. Epidemics, 37 (100516), 100516-100516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100516
Abstract
The emergence of infectious agents with pandemic potential present scientific challenges from detection to data interpretation to understanding determinants of risk and forecasts. Mathematical models could play an essential role in how we prepare for future emergent pathogens. Here, we describe core directions for expansion of the existing tools and knowledge base, including: using mathematical models to identify critical directions and paths for strengthening data collection to detect and respond to outbreaks of novel pathogens; expanding basic theory to identify infectious agents and contexts that present the greatest risks, over both the short and longer term; by strengthening estimation tools that make the most use of the likely range and uncertainties in existing data; and by ensuring modelling applications are carefully communicated and developed within diverse and equitable collaborations for increased public health benefit.
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R014604/1)
EPSRC (EP/V521929/1)
Embargo Lift Date
2024-11-08
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100516
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330428
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