Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide
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Authors
Caucutt, E. M.
Guner, N.
Rauh, C.
Publication Date
2021-08-24Series
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
Janeway Institute Working Paper Series
Publisher
Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Type
Working Paper
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Caucutt, E. M., Guner, N., & Rauh, C. (2021). Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.79359
Abstract
The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.
Keywords
Marriage, Race, Incarceration, Inequality, Unemployment
Identifiers
CWPE2160, JIWP2105
This record's DOI: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.79359
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331910
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