COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach.
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Authors
Burzyński, Michał
Machado, Joël
Aalto, Atte
Beine, Michel
Goncalves, Jorge
Haas, Tom
Kemp, Françoise
Magni, Stefano
Mombaerts, Laurent
Picard, Pierre
Proverbio, Daniele
Skupin, Alexander
Docquier, Frédéric
Publication Date
2021-12Journal Title
Econ Hum Biol
ISSN
1570-677X
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
43
Number
ARTN 101051
Pages
101051
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Physical Medium
Print-Electronic
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Burzyński, M., Machado, J., Aalto, A., Beine, M., Goncalves, J., Haas, T., Kemp, F., et al. (2021). COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach.. Econ Hum Biol, 43 (ARTN 101051), 101051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101051
Abstract
We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg. The model has been used to produce nowcasts and forecasts at various stages of the crisis. We focus here on two key moments in time, namely the deconfinement period following the first lockdown, and the onset of the second wave. In May 2020, we predicted a high risk of a second wave that was mainly explained by the resumption of social life, low participation in large-scale testing, and reduction in teleworking practices. Simulations conducted 5 months later reveal that managing the second wave with moderately coercive measures has been epidemiologically and economically effective. Assuming a massive third (or fourth) wave will not materialize in 2021, the real GDP loss due to the second wave will be smaller than 0.4 percentage points in 2020 and 2021.
Keywords
Coronavirus, Growth, Lockdown, Productivity, Public health, COVID-19, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Luxembourg, Public Policy, SARS-CoV-2
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101051
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/335745
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