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Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Change log

Authors

McIntyre, Michael Edgeworth  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9297-4299

Abstract

jats:pThis essay takes a brief personal look at aspects of the climate problem. The emphasis will be on some of the greatest scientific uncertainties, as suggested by what is known about past as well as present climates, including tipping points that likely occurred in the past and might occur in the near future. In the current state of knowledge and understanding, there is massive uncertainty about such tipping points. For one thing, there might or might not be a domino-like succession, or cascade, of tipping points that ultimately sends the climate system into an Eocene-like state, after an uncertain number of centuries. Sea levels would then be about 70 m higher than today, and surface storminess would likely reach extremes well outside human experience. Such worst-case scenarios are highly speculative. However, there is no way to rule them out with complete confidence. Credible assessments are outside the scope of current climate prediction models. So there has never in human history been a stronger case for applying the precautionary principle. Today there is no room for doubt—even from a purely financial perspective—about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions urgently and drastically, far more than is possible through so-called “offsetting”.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

37 Earth Sciences, 4802 Environmental and Resources Law, 48 Law and Legal Studies, 13 Climate Action

Journal Title

Meteorology

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2674-0494
2674-0494

Volume Title

1

Publisher

MDPI AG