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dc.contributor.authorMcIntyre, Michael Edgeworth
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-20T01:02:29Z
dc.date.available2022-04-20T01:02:29Z
dc.date.issued2022-04-18
dc.identifier.issn2674-0494
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/336247
dc.description.abstract<jats:p>This essay takes a brief personal look at aspects of the climate problem. The emphasis will be on some of the greatest scientific uncertainties, as suggested by what is known about past as well as present climates, including tipping points that likely occurred in the past and might occur in the near future. In the current state of knowledge and understanding, there is massive uncertainty about such tipping points. For one thing, there might or might not be a domino-like succession, or cascade, of tipping points that ultimately sends the climate system into an Eocene-like state, after an uncertain number of centuries. Sea levels would then be about 70 m higher than today, and surface storminess would likely reach extremes well outside human experience. Such worst-case scenarios are highly speculative. However, there is no way to rule them out with complete confidence. Credible assessments are outside the scope of current climate prediction models. So there has never in human history been a stronger case for applying the precautionary principle. Today there is no room for doubt—even from a purely financial perspective—about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions urgently and drastically, far more than is possible through so-called “offsetting”.</jats:p>
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.subjectclimate uncertainties
dc.subjecttipping points
dc.subjectcarbon-cycle instability
dc.subjectpalaeoclimate
dc.subjectDansgaard–Oeschger warmings
dc.subjectweather extremes
dc.subjectEocene
dc.subjectwhales
dc.subjectdolphins
dc.titleClimate Uncertainties: A Personal View
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2022-04-20T01:02:27Z
prism.endingPage170
prism.issueIdentifier2
prism.publicationNameMeteorology
prism.startingPage162
prism.volume1
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.83666
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-04-06
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.3390/meteorology1020011
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidMcIntyre, Michael Edgeworth [0000-0001-9297-4299]
dc.identifier.eissn2674-0494
cam.issuedOnline2022-04-18


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