Unknowns, black swans, and bounded rationality in public organizations
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Authors
Feduzi, A
Runde, J
Schwarz, G
Publication Date
2022-09Journal Title
Public Administration Review
ISSN
0033-3352
Publisher
Wiley
Type
Article
This Version
AM
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Feduzi, A., Runde, J., & Schwarz, G. (2022). Unknowns, black swans, and bounded rationality in public organizations. Public Administration Review https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13522
Abstract
“Unknowns” and “Black Swans” have become familiar terms in the public administration literature but tend to be used in different and often conflicting ways. This article provides a typology of the two terms, develops a framework for thinking about how their elements relate, and distinguishes four varieties of the Black Swan. Using the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster, 9/11, the recent international withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the trade boycott associated with the Danish cartoon controversy as examples, we examine how these four varieties may arise in public sector organizations. We offer recommendations on how such organizations might reduce psychological and organizational barriers to uncovering unknowns before they can go on to become Black Swans.
Embargo Lift Date
2024-05-21
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13522
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/336627
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