Impact of the centennial changes in ENSO on the rise of the Chinese Qing empire

Abstract

The demise of the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) and the rise of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) marked an epochal moment in Chinese and world history. Attention has been given to the North China droughts during 1627–1643 that destabilized the Ming Dynasty. However, there is little attention paid to how climate influenced the rise of a minority Manchu state in Northeast China and its conquest of the Ming. Here, we find that contrasting climate conditions between North and Northeast China persisted over a six-decade period (1581–1644), which diversely affected economic, societal, and political changes at the regional level. Five successive megadroughts ravaged North China, while relatively wet and mild climate conditions prevailed in the Manchu homeland of Northeast China. Furthermore, in the early decades of Manchu rule in North China (1645–1680), increased precipitation facilitated the Qing Dynasty’s consolidation. Reconstructions and climate model simulations revealed that these unusual climatic patterns were influenced by the centennial variation of clustering El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and were amplified by the Little Ice Age cooling. These findings shed light on how long-term contrasting future climate changes could lead to divergent socioeconomic responses, potentially increasing the risk of conflict between neighboring states.