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Vaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a risk-benefit analysis.

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cam.issuedOnline2021-11
dc.contributor.authorGurdasani, Deepti
dc.contributor.authorBhatt, Samir
dc.contributor.authorCostello, Anthony
dc.contributor.authorDenaxas, Spiros
dc.contributor.authorFlaxman, Seth
dc.contributor.authorGreenhalgh, Trisha
dc.contributor.authorGriffin, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorHyde, Zoë
dc.contributor.authorKatzourakis, Aris
dc.contributor.authorMcKee, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMichie, Susan
dc.contributor.authorRatmann, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorReicher, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorScally, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorTomlinson, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorYates, Christian
dc.contributor.authorZiauddeen, Hisham
dc.contributor.authorPagel, Christina
dc.contributor.orcidHyde, Zoë [0000-0002-5985-1729]
dc.contributor.orcidMcKee, Martin [0000-0002-0121-9683]
dc.contributor.orcidTomlinson, Christopher [0000-0002-0903-5395]
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-06T12:54:26Z
dc.date.available2022-01-06T12:54:26Z
dc.date.issued2021-11
dc.date.updated2022-01-06T12:54:25Z
dc.description.abstractOBJECTIVE: To offer a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England. SETTING: England. DESIGN: Following the risk-benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12-17 in England. We then used these rates alongside a range of estimates for incidence of long COVID, vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced myocarditis, to estimate hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID over a period of 16 weeks under assumptions of high and low case incidence. PARTICIPANTS: All 12-17 year olds with a record of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021 using national linked electronic health records, accessed through the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hospitalisations, Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID averted by vaccinating all 12-17 year olds in England over a 16-week period under different estimates of future case incidence. RESULTS: At high future case incidence of 1000/100,000 population/week over 16 weeks, vaccination could avert 4430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks. At the low incidence of 50/100,000/week, vaccination could avert 70 hospital admissions and two deaths over 16 weeks. The benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalisations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week). Benefit of vaccination exists at any case rate for the outcomes of death and long COVID, since neither have been associated with vaccination to date. CONCLUSIONS: Given the current (as at 15 September 2021) high case rates (680/100,000 population/week in 10-19 year olds) in England, our findings support vaccination of adolescents against SARS-CoV2.
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.79643
dc.identifier.eissn1758-1095
dc.identifier.issn0141-0768
dc.identifier.otherPMC8649477
dc.identifier.other34723680
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/332197
dc.languageeng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSAGE Publications
dc.publisher.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1177/01410768211052589
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourceessn: 1758-1095
dc.sourcenlmid: 7802879
dc.subjectClinical
dc.subjectevidence-based practice
dc.subjectnon-clinical
dc.subjectpaediatrics
dc.subjectpublic health
dc.subjectvaccination programmes
dc.subjectAdolescent
dc.subjectAdolescent Health
dc.subjectAge Factors
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectCOVID-19 Vaccines
dc.subjectChild
dc.subjectChild Health
dc.subjectEngland
dc.subjectFemale
dc.subjectHospitalization
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectIncidence
dc.subjectIntensive Care Units
dc.subjectMale
dc.subjectMyocarditis
dc.subjectPublic Health
dc.subjectRisk
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectSeverity of Illness Index
dc.subjectTreatment Outcome
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectPost-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome
dc.titleVaccinating adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 in England: a risk-benefit analysis.
dc.typeArticle
prism.endingPage524
prism.issueIdentifier11
prism.publicationNameJ R Soc Med
prism.startingPage513
prism.volume114
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1177/01410768211052589

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