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Multilevel models for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data: An approach to model choice.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Ng, Edmond S-W 
Diaz-Ordaz, Karla 
Grieve, Richard 
Nixon, Richard M 
Thompson, Simon G 

Abstract

Multilevel models provide a flexible modelling framework for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data. However, there is a lack of guidance on how to choose the most appropriate multilevel models. This paper illustrates an approach for deciding what level of model complexity is warranted; in particular how best to accommodate complex variance-covariance structures, right-skewed costs and missing data. Our proposed models differ according to whether or not they allow individual-level variances and correlations to differ across treatment arms or clusters and by the assumed cost distribution (Normal, Gamma, Inverse Gaussian). The models are fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our approach to model choice is based on four main criteria: the characteristics of the data, model pre-specification informed by the previous literature, diagnostic plots and assessment of model appropriateness. This is illustrated by re-analysing a previous cost-effectiveness analysis that uses data from a cluster randomised trial. We find that the most useful criterion for model choice was the deviance information criterion, which distinguishes amongst models with alternative variance-covariance structures, as well as between those with different cost distributions. This strategy for model choice can help cost-effectiveness analyses provide reliable inferences for policy-making when using cluster trials, including those with missing data.

Description

Keywords

cluster randomised trial, cost-effectiveness analyses, multilevel models, Cluster Analysis, Coronary Disease, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Humans, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Method, Normal Distribution, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Research Design, Secondary Prevention

Journal Title

Stat Methods Med Res

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0962-2802
1477-0334

Volume Title

25

Publisher

SAGE Publications
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1)
British Heart Foundation (None)