Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Published version

Peer-reviewed

Repository URI

https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/326036

Repository DOI

https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.73493

Files

Bibliographic metadata (8.4 KB)

Published version (742.2 KB)

Type

Authors

Jehn, Florian U

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7296-8008

Schneider, Marie

Wang, Jason R

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3854-9635

Kemp, Luke

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3816-564X

Breuer, Lutz

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9720-1076

Abstract

Abstract: We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.

Keywords

Letter, higher end warming, climate change, IPCC, existential risk

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Publisher DOI

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef

Rights and licensing

Except where otherwised noted, this item's license is described as http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Sponsorship

Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (57526248)

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