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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe.

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cam.issuedOnline2021-10-05
dc.contributor.authorSharma, Mrinank
dc.contributor.authorMindermann, Sören
dc.contributor.authorRogers-Smith, Charlie
dc.contributor.authorLeech, Gavin
dc.contributor.authorSnodin, Benedict
dc.contributor.authorAhuja, Janvi
dc.contributor.authorSandbrink, Jonas B
dc.contributor.authorMonrad, Joshua Teperowski
dc.contributor.authorAltman, George
dc.contributor.authorDhaliwal, Gurpreet
dc.contributor.authorFinnveden, Lukas
dc.contributor.authorNorman, Alexander John
dc.contributor.authorOehm, Sebastian B
dc.contributor.authorSandkühler, Julia Fabienne
dc.contributor.authorAitchison, Laurence
dc.contributor.authorGavenčiak, Tomáš
dc.contributor.authorMellan, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorKulveit, Jan
dc.contributor.authorChindelevitch, Leonid
dc.contributor.authorFlaxman, Seth
dc.contributor.authorGal, Yarin
dc.contributor.authorMishra, Swapnil
dc.contributor.authorBhatt, Samir
dc.contributor.authorBrauner, Jan Markus
dc.contributor.orcidSharma, Mrinank [0000-0002-4304-7963]
dc.contributor.orcidMindermann, Sören [0000-0002-0315-9821]
dc.contributor.orcidLeech, Gavin [0000-0002-9298-1488]
dc.contributor.orcidMonrad, Joshua Teperowski [0000-0002-7377-2074]
dc.contributor.orcidOehm, Sebastian B [0000-0002-7099-0578]
dc.contributor.orcidFlaxman, Seth [0000-0002-2477-4217]
dc.contributor.orcidGal, Yarin [0000-0002-2733-2078]
dc.contributor.orcidMishra, Swapnil [0000-0002-8759-5902]
dc.contributor.orcidBhatt, Samir [0000-0002-0891-4611]
dc.contributor.orcidBrauner, Jan Markus [0000-0002-1588-5724]
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-15T12:13:31Z
dc.date.available2021-12-15T12:13:31Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-05
dc.date.submitted2021-06-24
dc.date.updated2021-12-15T12:13:31Z
dc.descriptionFunder: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001713
dc.descriptionFunder: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the U.K. Medical Research Council (MRC) and the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement. Community Jameel. The UK Research and Innovation (MR/V038109/1), the Academy of Medical Sciences Springboard Award (SBF004/1080), The MRC (MR/R015600/1), The BMGF (OPP1197730), Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding (RDA02), The Novo Nordisk Young Investigator Award (NNF20OC0059309) and The NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology. S. Bhatt thanks Microsoft AI for Health and Amazon AWS for computational credits.
dc.descriptionFunder: EA Funds
dc.descriptionFunder: University of Oxford (Oxford University); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000769
dc.descriptionFunder: DeepMind
dc.descriptionFunder: OpenPhilanthropy
dc.descriptionFunder: UKRI Centre for Doctoral Training in Interactive Artificial Intelligence (EP/S022937/1)
dc.descriptionFunder: Augustinus Fonden (Augustinus Foundation); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004954
dc.descriptionFunder: Knud Højgaards Fond (Knud Højgaard Fund); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100009938
dc.descriptionFunder: Kai Lange og Gunhild Kai Langes Fond (Kai Lange and Gunhild Kai Lange Foundation); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100008206
dc.descriptionFunder: Aage og Johanne Louis-Hansens Fond (Aage and Johanne Louis-Hansen Foundation); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100010344
dc.descriptionFunder: William Demant Foundation
dc.descriptionFunder: Boehringer Ingelheim Fonds (Stiftung für medizinische Grundlagenforschung); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001645
dc.descriptionFunder: Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund
dc.descriptionFunder: Cancer Research UK (CRUK); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000289
dc.description.abstractEuropean governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours-such as distancing-which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe's third wave.
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.78952
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.others41467-021-26013-4
dc.identifier.other26013
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331498
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.publisher.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4
dc.subjectBasic Reproduction Number
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectEurope
dc.subjectGovernment
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectModels, Theoretical
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectTime Factors
dc.titleUnderstanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe.
dc.typeArticle
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-08-23
prism.issueIdentifier1
prism.publicationNameNat Commun
prism.volume12
pubs.funder-project-idRCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (EP/S024050/1, EP/V002910/1, EP/S024050/1))
pubs.funder-project-idRCUK | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (BB/T008784/1)
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4

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