Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.

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Jaspers, Nicole EM 
Blaha, Michael J 
Matsushita, Kunihiro 
van der Schouw, Yvonne T 
Wareham, Nicholas J 

AIMS: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. METHODS AND RESULTS: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via CONCLUSION: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication.

Apparently healthy people, Cardiovascular disease prevention, Lifetime prediction, Therapy-benefit, Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cholesterol, Fibrinolytic Agents, Humans, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Smoking Cessation
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Eur Heart J
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
All rights reserved
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/1)
Department of Health (via National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)) (NF-SI-0617-10149)
Medical Research Council (MR/N003284/1)
Medical Research Council (G0401527)
Medical Research Council (G1000143)