Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk

Abstract

Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, and many different terms and concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand of research characterises how risk emerges within the complex global system, using concepts like systemic risk, Anthropocene risk, synchronous failure, negative social tipping points, and polycrisis. Another focuses on possible worst-case outcomes, using concepts like global catastrophic risk (GCR), existential risk, and extinction risk. Despite their clear relevance to each other, connections between these two strands remain limited. Here we provide a simple conceptual framework which synthesises these research strands and shows how emergent properties of the global system contribute to the risk of global catastrophic outcomes. In particular, we show that much GCR stems from the interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities which arise endogenously within the global system, and how “systems thinking” and complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory can help illuminate this. We also highlight some unique challenges which systemic sources of GCR pose for risk assessment and mitigation, discuss insights for policy, and outline potential paths forward.