No Missing Flare in OJ 287

Abstract

The quasar OJ 287 has shown large flares since 1888, following a pattern that arises in a supermassive black hole binary when the secondary hits the accretion disk of the primary, and releases a hot bubble of gas at every disk crossing. A complete mathematical solution of the flare sequence produced a list of future flares, the latest happening in the summer of 2022. Here I look into the origin of the idea that the lack of seeing the 2022 flare is a theoretical problem. During the summer OJ 287 cannot be observed by ground-based optical telescopes. In a paper published in 2021, ahead of the 2022 observing campaign, this was clearly stated. The often repeated claim that there is a “missing flare problem,” is a misunderstanding, as no detection was possible with the current instrumentation.