Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insights from a dynamic model
Proceedings of the Royal Society B
Royal Society Publishing
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Brooks-Pollock, E., & Wood, J. (2015). Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insights from a dynamic model. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282 (20150374)https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0374
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a multi-species infection that commonly affects cattle and badgers in Great Britain. Despite years of study, the impact of badgers on BTB incidence in cattle is poorly understood. Using a two-host transmission model of BTB in cattle and badgers, we find that published data and parameter estimates are most consistent with a system at the threshold of control. The most consistent explanation for data obtained from cattle and badger populations includes within-host reproduction numbers close to 1 and between-host reproduction numbers of approximately 0.05. In terms of controlling infection in cattle, reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission is essential. In some regions, even large reductions in badger prevalence can have a modest impact on cattle infection and a multi-stranded approach is necessary that also targets badger-to-cattle transmission directly. The new perspective highlighted by this two-host approach provides insight into the control of BTB in Great Britain.
bovine tuberculosis, type reproduction numbers, transmission dynamics, disease control
The work and E.B.-P.’s fellowship was funded by the EPSRC (EP/H027270/1). J.L.N.W. is supported by the Alborada Trust, the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security, the Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976) and by BBSRC grant BB/I012192/1.
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0374
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/248133
Attribution 2.0 UK: England & Wales
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/uk/
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