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Income uncertainty and household savings in China


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Authors

Chamon, M 
Prasad, E 

Abstract

China's urban household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. To understand these patterns, we analyze a panel of urban Chinese households over the period 1989–2009. We document a sharp increase in income uncertainty, largely due to an increase in the variance in household income attributed to transitory idiosyncratic shocks. We then calibrate a buffer-stock savings model to obtain quantitative estimates of the impact of rising household-specific income uncertainty as well as another shock to household income—the pension reforms that were instituted in the late 1990s. Our calibrations suggest that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms lead younger and older households, respectively, to raise their saving rates significantly. These two factors account for two-thirds of the increase in China's urban household saving rate and the U-shaped age-savings profile.

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Keywords

China, Household savings, Income uncertainty, Pension reforms, Buffer-stock savings

Journal Title

Journal of Development Economics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0304-3878
1872-6089

Volume Title

105

Publisher

Elsevier BV
Sponsorship
We are grateful to Loren Brandt, Robert Moffitt, two anonymous referees, as well as participants at the NBER Summer Institute, China Economics Summer Institute, IMF Research Seminar, and the Workshop on China's Macroeconomy at the University of Toronto for comments and suggestions. We thank Lei (Sandy) Ye for research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.