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Rising atmospheric methane: 2007-2014 growth and isotopic shift

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Nisbet, EG 
Dlugokencky, EJ 
Manning, MR 
Lowry, D 
Fisher, RE 

Abstract

From 2007 to 2013, the globally averaged mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere increased by 5.7±1.2ppb yr−1. Simultaneously, δ13CCH4 (a measure of the 13C/12C isotope ratio in methane) has shifted to significantly more negative values since 2007. Growth was extreme in 2014, at 12.5±0.4ppb, with a further shift to more negative values being observed at most latitudes. The isotopic evidence presented here suggests that the methane rise was dominated by significant increases in biogenic methane emissions, particularly in the tropics, for example, from expansion of tropical wetlands in years with strongly positive rainfall anomalies or emissions from increased agricultural sources such as ruminants and rice paddies. Changes in the removal rate of methane by the OH radical have not been seen in other tracers of atmospheric chemistry and do not appear to explain short-term variations in methane. Fossil fuel emissions may also have grown, but the sustained shift to more 13C-depleted values and its significant interannual variability, and the tropical and Southern Hemisphere loci of post-2007 growth, both indicate that fossil fuel emissions have not been the dominant factor driving the increase. A major cause of increased tropical wetland and tropical agricultural methane emissions, the likely major contributors to growth, may be their responses to meteorological change.

Description

Keywords

37 Earth Sciences, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, 13 Climate Action

Journal Title

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0886-6236
1944-9224

Volume Title

30

Publisher

Wiley
Sponsorship
Royal Society (RP120096)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I029161/1)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I010750/1)
This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council projects NE/N016211/1 The Global Methane Budget, NE/M005836/1 Methane at the edge, NE/K006045/1 The Southern Methane Anomaly and NE/I028874/1 MAMM. We thank the UK Meteorological Office for flask collection and hosting the continuous measurement at Ascension, the Ascension Island Government for essential support, and Thumeka Mkololo for flask collection in Cape Town