How Well Do We Know the Future of CO₂ Emissions? Projecting Fleet Emissions from Light Duty Vehicle Technology Drivers
Environmental Science and Technology
American Chemical Society
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Martin, N., Bishop, J., & Boies, A. (2017). How Well Do We Know the Future of CO₂ Emissions? Projecting Fleet Emissions from Light Duty Vehicle Technology Drivers. Environmental Science and Technology, 51 (5), 3093-3101. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04746
While the UK has committed to reduce CO₂ emissions to 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, transport accounts for nearly a fourth of all emissions and the degree to which decarbonisation can occur is highly uncertain. We present a new methodology using vehicle and powertrain parameters within a Bayesian framework to determine the impact of engineering vehicle improvements on fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. Our results show how design changes in vehicle parameters (e.g. mass, engine size and compression ratio) result in fuel consumption improvements from a fleet-wide mean of 5.6 L/100 km in 2014 to 3.0 L/100 km by 2030. The change in vehicle efficiency coupled with increases in vehicle numbers and total fleet-wide activity result in a total fleet-wide reduction of 41±10% in 2030, relative to 2012. Concerted internal combustion engine improvements result in a 48±10% reduction of CO2 emissions, while efforts to increase the number of diesel vehicles within the fleet had little additional effect. Increasing plug-in and all-electric vehicles reduced CO2 emissions by less (42±10% reduction) than concerted internal combustion engines improvements. However, if the grid decarbonises, electric vehicles reduce emissions by 45±9% with further reduction potential to 2050.
Is supplemented by: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.7506
The authors acknowledge the UK EPSRC funding provided for this work under the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EP/F034350/1) and the Centre for Sustainable Road Freight Transport (EP/K00915X/1).
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External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04746
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/262627
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/