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On fault propagation in deterioration of multi-component systems

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Parlikad, AKN 
Srinivasan, R 
Rasmekomen, N 

Abstract

In extant literature, deterioration dependence among components can be modelled as inherent dependence and induced dependence. We find that the two types of dependence may co-exist and interact with each other in one multi-component system. We refer to this phenomenon as fault propagation. In practice, a fault induced by the malfunction of a non-critical component may further propagate through the dependence amongst critical components. Such fault propagation scenario happens in industrial assets or systems (bridge deck, and heat exchanging system). In this paper, a multi-layered vector-valued continuous-time Markov chain is developed to capture the characteristics of fault propagation. To obtain the mathematical tractability, we derive a partitioning rule to aggregate states with the same characteristics while keeping the overall aging behaviour of the multi-component system. Although the detailed information of components is masked by aggregated states, lumpability is attainable with the partitioning rule. It means that the aggregated process is stochastically equivalent to the original one and retains the Markov property. We apply this model on a heat exchanging system in oil refinery company. The results show that fault propagation has a more significant impact on the system's lifetime comparing with inherent dependence and induced dependence.

Description

Keywords

Markov processes, reliability, risk analysis, stochastic processes

Journal Title

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0951-8320
1879-0836

Volume Title

162

Publisher

Elsevier BV
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/L010917/1)
European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) Marie Sk?odowska-Curie actions (645733)
European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) Marie Sk?odowska-Curie actions (645733)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/K000314/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/I019308/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N021614/1)