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Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Oughton, EJ 
Skelton, A 
Horne, RB 
Thomson, AWP 
Gaunt, CT 

Abstract

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Description

Keywords

economic impact, electricity transmission, extreme space weather

Journal Title

Space Weather

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1542-7390
1542-7390

Volume Title

15

Publisher

American Geophysical Union
Sponsorship
EPSRC (via University of Oxford) (R17313/CN002)
The authors acknowledge partial financial support from American International Group during the research and especially thank Brad Fischtrom, Siddhartha Dalal, and their team for providing useful comments and insights as the research progressed. We also thank attendees of the workshop held at the Cambridge Judge Business School in July 2015. Three anonymous reviewers are acknowledged for providing useful comments and feedback on the paper. Oughton was partially supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council under grant EP/N017064/1: Multiscale InfraSTRucture systems AnaLytics. Horne and Thomson would like to acknowledge the support of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). This paper is published by permission of the Executive Director, British Geological Survey (NERC).