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Bayesian model selection without evidences: Application to the dark energy equation-of-state

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Hee, S 
Handley, WJ 
Hobson, MP 
Lasenby, AN 

Abstract

A method is presented for Bayesian model selection without explicitly computing evidences, by using a combined likelihood and introducing an integer model selection parameter n so that Bayes factors, or more generally posterior odds ratios, may be read off directly from the posterior of n. If the total number of models under consideration is specified a priori, the full joint parameter space (θ, n) of the models is of fixed dimensionality and can be explored using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or nested sampling methods, without the need for reversible jump MCMC techniques. The posterior on n is then obtained by straightforward marginalization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by application to several toy models. We then apply it to constraining the dark energy equation of state using a free-form reconstruction technique. We show that Λ cold dark matter is significantly favoured over all extensions, including the simple w(z) = constant model.

Description

Keywords

equation of state, methods: data analysis, methods: statistical, cosmological parameters, dark energy

Journal Title

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0035-8711
1365-2966

Volume Title

455

Publisher

Oxford University Press
Sponsorship
Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/H008586/1)
Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/J005673/1)
Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/K00333X/1)
Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/M00418X/1)
Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/M007065/1)
STFC (1208121)
This work was performed using the Darwin Supercomputer of the University of Cambridge High Performance Computing Service (http://www.hpc.cam.ac.uk/), provided by Dell Inc. using Strategic Research Infrastructure Funding from the Higher Education Funding Council for England and funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council. Parts of this work were undertaken on the COSMOS Shared Memory system at DAMTP, University of Cambridge operated on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility, this equipment is funded by BIS National E-infrastructure capital grant ST/J005673/1 and STFC grants ST/H008586/1, ST/K00333X/1. SH and WH thank STFC for financial support.