For many years, terrorism has threatened life, property and business. Targets are largely in urban areas where there is a greater density of life and economic value. Governments, insurers and engineers have sought to mitigate these threats through understanding the effects of urban bombings, increasing the resilience of buildings and improving estimates of financial loss for insurance purposes. This has led to a desire for an improved approach to the prediction of blast propagation in urban cityscapes.

Urban geometry has a significant impact on blast wave propagation. Presently, only computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods adequately simulate these effects. However, for large-scale urban domains, these methods are both challenging to use and are computationally expensive. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) methods alleviate the problem, but are difficult to use for the non-expert and require significant tuning. We aim to make CFD urban blast simulation a primary choice for governments, insurers and engineers through improvements to AMR and by studying the performance of CFD in relation to other methods used by the industry.

We present a new AMR flagging approach based on a second derivative error norm for compressive shocks (ENCS). This is compared with existing methods and is shown to lead to a reduction in overall refinement without affecting solution quality. Significant improvements to feature tracking over long distances are demonstrated, making the method easier to tune and less obtuse to non-experts.

In the chapter that follows, we consider blast damage in urban areas. We begin with a validation and a numerical study, investigating the effects of simple street geometry on blast resultants. We then investigate the sensitivity of their distribution to the location of the charge. We find that moving the charge by a small distance can lead to a significant change in peak overpressures and creates a highly localised damage field due to interactions between the blast wave and the geometry. We then extend the investigation to the prediction of insured losses following a large-scale bombing in London. A CFD loss model is presented and compared with simpler approaches that do not account for urban geometry. We find that the simpler models lead to significant over-predictions of loss, equivalent to several hundred million pounds for the scenario considered. We use these findings to argue for increased uptake of CFD methods by the insurance industry.

In the final chapter, we investigate the influence of urban geometry on the propagation of blast waves. An earlier study on the confinement effects of narrow streets is repeated at a converged resolution and we corroborate the findings. We repeat the study, this time introducing a variable porosity into the building facade. We observe that the effect of this porosity is as significant as the confinement effect, and we recommend to engineers that they consider porosity effects in certain cases. We conclude the study by investigating how alterations to building window layout can improve the protective effects of a facade. Maintaining the window surface area constant, we consider a range of layouts and observe how some result in significant reductions to blast strength inside the building.