Structural decline in China's CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems
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Guan, D., Meng, J., Reiner, D., Zhang, N., Shan, Y., Mi, Z., Shao, S., et al. (2018). Structural decline in China's CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems. Nature Geoscience, 11 551-555. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0161-1
As part of the Paris Agreement, China pledged to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030. In retrospect, the commitment may have been fulfilled as it was being made: China’s emissions peaked in 2013 at a level of 9.53 Gigatons of CO2, and declined in each year from 2014 to 2016. However, the prospect for maintenance of the continued reductions depend the relative contributions of different changes in China. Here we quantitatively evaluate the drivers of the peak and decline of China’s CO2 emissions between 2007 and 2016 using the latest available energy, economic, and industry data. We find that slowing economic growth in China has it easier to reduce emissions. Nevertheless, the decline is largely associated with changes in industrial structure and a decline in the share of coal used for energy. Decreasing energy intensity (energy per unit GDP) and emissions intensity (emissions per unit energy) also contributed to the decline. Based on an econometric (cumulative sum) test, we confirm that there is a clear structural break in China’s emission pattern from 2015. We conclude that the decline of Chinese emissions is structural and is likely to be sustained if the nascent industrial and energy system transitions continue.
NERC (via Imperial College London) (NE/P019900/1)
External link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0161-1
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/280761