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Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Kirwan, Peter 
Brown, Alison E 

Abstract

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales.

Description

Keywords

Back-calculation, Bayesian inference, Multi-state model, Routinely collected data, Splines, Adolescent, Adult, Bayes Theorem, England, HIV Infections, Humans, Incidence, Likelihood Functions, Male, Middle Aged, Population Surveillance, Prevalence, Risk Assessment, Time Factors, Wales, Young Adult

Journal Title

Lifetime Data Anal

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1380-7870
1572-9249

Volume Title

25

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC