Repository logo
 

In Defense of Portfolio Optimization: What If We Can Forecast?

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Allen, David 
Satchell, Stephen 

Abstract

We challenge academic consensus that estimation error makes mean-variance portfolio strategies inferior to passive equal-weighted approaches. We demonstrate analytically, via simulation and empirically that investors endowed with modest forecasting ability benefit substantially from an MV approach. An investor with some forecasting ability improves expected utility by increasing the number of assets considered. We frame our study realistically using budget constraints, transaction costs and out-of-sample testing for a wide range of investments. We derive practical decision rules to choose between passive and mean variance optimisation results and generate results consistent with much financial market practice and the original Markowitz formulation.

Description

Keywords

portfolio optimisation, forecasting ability, asset allocation, mean variance, estimation error

Journal Title

Financial Analysts Journal

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0015-198X
1938-3312

Volume Title

75

Publisher

Association for Investment Management and Research

Rights

All rights reserved