Italexit, is it another Brexit?
Journal of Geographical Systems
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Fingleton, B. (2020). Italexit, is it another Brexit?. Journal of Geographical Systems, 22 (1), 77-104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-019-00307-0
This paper estimates the possible job-shortfall across Italian and EU regions using a time-space dynamic panel data model with a Spatial Moving Average Random Effects (SMA-RE) structure of the disturbances. The paper is a companion paper to an earlier prediction exercise regarding Brexit. The model includes spatial and temporal dependencies involving the endogenous variable, leading to estimates based on a new dynamic spatial Generalized Moments (GM) estimator proposed by Baltagi, Fingleton and Pirotte (2018). The predictions use modified interregional trade estimates, assuming a reduction in trade flows between Italian and EU regions due to Italexit, to simulate the impact on employment across Italian regions and the wider EU. Comparisons are made between Italexit and Brexit.
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External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-019-00307-0
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/294817
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/