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The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge PLAsTiCC: Selection of a Performance Metric for Classification Probabilities Balancing Diverse Science Goals

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Malz, AI 
Hlozek, R 
Allam, T Jr 
Bahmanyar, A 
Biswas, R 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title> jats:pClassification of transient and variable light curves is an essential step in using astronomical observations to develop an understanding of the underlying physical processes from which they arise. However, upcoming deep photometric surveys, including the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (jats:scLSST</jats:sc>), will produce a deluge of low signal-to-noise data for which traditional type estimation procedures are inappropriate. Probabilistic classification is more appropriate for such data but is incompatible with the traditional metrics used on deterministic classifications. Furthermore, large survey collaborations like jats:scLSST</jats:sc> intend to use the resulting classification probabilities for diverse science objectives, indicating a need for a metric that balances a variety of goals. We describe the process used to develop an optimal performance metric for an open classification challenge that seeks to identify probabilistic classifiers that can serve many scientific interests. The Photometric jats:scLSST</jats:sc> Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (jats:scPLAsTiCC</jats:sc>) aims to identify promising techniques for obtaining classification probabilities of transient and variable objects by engaging a broader community beyond astronomy. Using mock classification probability submissions emulating realistically complex archetypes of those anticipated of jats:scPLAsTiCC</jats:sc>, we compare the sensitivity of two metrics of classification probabilities under various weighting schemes, finding that both yield results that are qualitatively consistent with intuitive notions of classification performance. We thus choose as a metric for jats:scPLAsTiCC</jats:sc> a weighted modification of the cross-entropy because it can be meaningfully interpreted in terms of information content. Finally, we propose extensions of our methodology to ever more complex challenge goals and suggest some guiding principles for approaching the choice of a metric of probabilistic data products.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

methods: data analysis, methods: statistical, stars: variables: general, supernovae: general, surveys, techniques: photometric

Journal Title

ASTRONOMICAL JOURNAL

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0004-6256
1538-3881

Volume Title

158

Publisher

American Astronomical Society

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Swedish Research Council (2016-06012_VR)
European Research Council (306478)
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