© 1982-2012 IEEE. This paper proposes a condition-based maintenance and prognostics and health management (CBM/PHM) procedure for a rotor bar in an induction motor. The methodology is based on the results of a fatigue test intended to reproduce in the most natural way a bar breakage in order to carry out a comparison between transient and stationary diagnosis methods for incipient fault detection. Newly developed techniques in stator-current transient analysis have allowed tracking the developing fault during the last part of the test, identifying the failure mechanism, and establishing a physical model of the process. This nonlinear failure model is integrated in a particle filtering algorithm to diagnose the defect at an early stage and predict the remaining useful life of the bar. An initial generalization of the results to conditions differing from the ones under which the fatigue test was developed is studied.