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Multiple change point detection and validation in autoregressive time series data

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Ma, Lijing 
Grant, Andrew J. 
Sofronov, Georgy 

Abstract

Abstract: It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is modelled assuming each segment is an autoregressive time series with possibly different autoregressive parameters. This is achieved using two main steps. The first step is to use a likelihood ratio scan based estimation technique to identify these potential change points to segment the time series. Once these potential change points are identified, modified parametric spectral discrimination tests are used to validate the proposed segments. A numerical study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method across various scenarios and compared against other contemporary techniques.

Description

Keywords

Regular Article, Changepoint detection, Autoregressive time series, Likelihood ratio scan statistics, Multiple testing problems

Journal Title

Statistical Papers

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0932-5026
1613-9798

Volume Title

61

Publisher

Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Sponsorship
Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Welcome Trust and the Royal Society (204623/Z/16/Z)