Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading
Authors
Cooper, Laura
Kang, Su Yun
Bisanzio, Donal
Maxwell, Kilama
Greenhouse, Bryan
Arinaitwe, Emmanuel
G. Staedke, Sarah
Gething, Peter W.
Eckhoff, Philip
Dorsey, Grant
Kamya, Moses R.
Lindsay, Steven W.
Grenfell, Bryan T.
Publication Date
2019-09-02Journal Title
Nature Communications
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Volume
10
Issue
1
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Cooper, L., Kang, S. Y., Bisanzio, D., Maxwell, K., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Greenhouse, B., Drakeley, C., et al. (2019). Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading. Nature Communications, 10 (1)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
Abstract
Abstract: Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.
Keywords
Article, /631/158, /692/699/255/1629, /141, /129, article
Identifiers
s41467-019-11861-y, 11861
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/309790
Rights
Licence:
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/