Repository logo
 

Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Abstract

Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany, including 6110 from test centers attended by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalized, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The viral load of the youngest subjects was lower than that of the older subjects by 0.5 (or fewer) log10 units, and they displayed an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability; in part this was due to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 109 copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with a mean age of 37.6 years. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (108.1 RNA copies per swab) and peak cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log10 viral load 1.05 higher than that of non-B.1.1.7 subjects, and the estimated cell culture replication probability of B.1.1.7 subjects was higher by a factor of 2.6.

Description

Keywords

Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Asymptomatic Infections, COVID-19, COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing, Caco-2 Cells, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Germany, Hospitalization, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Probability, SARS-CoV-2, Viral Load, Virus Replication, Virus Shedding, Young Adult

Journal Title

Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0036-8075
1095-9203

Volume Title

373

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Sponsorship
National Institutes of Health (NIH) (via Mount Sinai School of Medicine (MSSM)) (0258-0513/HHSN272201400008C)
National Institutes of Health (NIH) (via Mount Sinai School of Medicine (MSSM)) (HHSN272201400008C)