Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels
Gernaat, D. E. H. J.
Van Vuuren, D. P.
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Warren, R., Hope, C., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Van Vuuren, D. P., & Jenkins, K. (2021). Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climatic Change, 168 (3-4) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03198-7
Abstract: We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.
Article, Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries, Climate change, Economic damages, Risk, Aggregate damages, Integrated assessment model
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03198-7
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329780