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dc.contributor.authorWarren, R.
dc.contributor.authorHope, C.
dc.contributor.authorGernaat, D. E. H. J.
dc.contributor.authorVan Vuuren, D. P.
dc.contributor.authorJenkins, K.
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-22T15:51:42Z
dc.date.available2021-10-22T15:51:42Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-22
dc.date.submitted2020-02-28
dc.identifier.issn0165-0009
dc.identifier.others10584-021-03198-7
dc.identifier.other3198
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329780
dc.description.abstractAbstract: We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer Netherlands
dc.subjectArticle
dc.subjectAccrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectEconomic damages
dc.subjectRisk
dc.subjectAggregate damages
dc.subjectIntegrated assessment model
dc.titleGlobal and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-10-22T15:51:41Z
prism.issueIdentifier3-4
prism.publicationNameClimatic Change
prism.volume168
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.77225
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-08-05
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1007/s10584-021-03198-7
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidWarren, R. [0000-0002-0122-1599]
dc.identifier.eissn1573-1480


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