Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface.
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Publication Date
2021-12Journal Title
Epidemics
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Number
100523
Pages
100523-100523
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AM
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Roberts, M., Dobson, A., Restif, O., & Wells, K. (2021). Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface.. Epidemics, (100523), 100523-100523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host-pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R014604/1)
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331059
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