Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing.
Lucas, Tim CD
Davis, Emma L
Medley, Graham F
Déirdre Hollingsworth, T
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
The Royal Society
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Lucas, T. C., Davis, E. L., Ayabina, D., Borlase, A., Crellen, T., Pi, L., Medley, G. F., et al. (2021). Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing.. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 376 (1829) https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0270
Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
ARTICLES, Research articles, COVID-19, contact tracing, SARS-CoV-2, adherence, case isolation, quarantine
MRC (via University of Warwick) (MR/V038613/1)
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0270
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331487