Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.
Publication Date
2021-07-19Journal Title
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
ISSN
0962-8436
Publisher
The Royal Society
Volume
376
Issue
1829
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AO
VoR
Metadata
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Gog, J., & Hollingsworth, T. D. (2021). Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results.. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 376 (1829) https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0263
Abstract
Analytical expressions and approximations from simple models have performed a pivotal role in our understanding of infectious disease epidemiology. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, while there has been proliferation of increasingly complex models, still the most basic models have provided the core framework for our thinking and interpreting policy decisions. Here, classic results are presented that give insights into both the role of transmission-reducing interventions (such as social distancing) in controlling an emerging epidemic, and also what would happen if insufficient control is applied. Though these are simple results from the most basic of epidemic models, they give valuable benchmarks for comparison with the outputs of more complex modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
Keywords
ARTICLES, Research articles, epidemic, pandemic, non-pharmacutical interventions, SIR model
Sponsorship
MRC (via University of Warwick) (MR/V038613/1)
Identifiers
rstb20200263
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0263
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331493
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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