What Contributes to the Inter-Annual Variability in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Temperatures?
Publication Date
2022-01-16Journal Title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN
2169-897X
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Volume
127
Issue
1
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AO
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Ming, A., & Hitchcock, P. (2022). What Contributes to the Inter-Annual Variability in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Temperatures?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (1) https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035548
Description
Funder: Leverhulme Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275
Funder: Newton Trust
Abstract
Abstract: The inter‐annual variability in mid and lower stratospheric temperatures for the period 1984–2019 is decomposed into dynamical and radiative contributions using a radiative calculation perturbed with changes in dynamical heating, trace gases and aerosol optical depth. The temperature timeseries obtained is highly correlated with the de‐seasonalized ERA5 temperature (r2 > 0.6 in the region 15 to 70 hPa, 1992 to 2019–after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption). Ozone and dynamical heating contributions are found to be equally important, with water vapor, stratospheric aerosols, and carbon dioxide playing smaller roles. Prominent aspects of the temperature timeseries are closely reproduced, including the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, the year‐2000 water vapor drop, and the 2016 Quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption. Below 20 hPa, ozone is primarily controlled by transport and is positively correlated to the upwelling. This ozone‐transport feedback acts to increase the temperature response to a change in upwelling by providing an additional ozone‐induced radiative temperature change. This can be quantified as an enhancement of the dynamical heating of about 20% at 70 hPa. A Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis is used to estimate the contribution of the ozone QBO (±1 K at 70 hPa). The non‐QBO ozone variability is also shown to be significant. Using the QBO leading POP timeseries as representative of the regular QBO signal, the QBO 2016 disruption is shown to have an anomalously large radiative impact on temperature due to the ozone change ( > 3 K $ > 3\hspace*{.5em}\mathrm{K}$ at 70 hPa).
Keywords
Climate and Dynamics, ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE, Middle atmosphere: composition and chemistry, Volcanic effects, Air/sea constituent fluxes, Middle atmosphere: constituent transport and chemistry, Middle atmosphere: energy deposition, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Climate dynamics, Modeling, COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS, Numerical solutions, CRYOSPHERE, Avalanches, Mass balance, GEODESY AND GRAVITY, Ocean monitoring with geodetic techniques, Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions, Global change from geodesy, GLOBAL CHANGE, Abrupt/rapid climate change, Climate variability, Earth system modeling, Impacts of global change, Land/atmosphere interactions, Oceans, Regional climate change, Sea level change, Solid Earth, Water cycles, HYDROLOGY, Climate impacts, Hydrological cycles and budgets, INFORMATICS, MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS, Gravity and isostasy, ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES, Middle atmosphere dynamics, Radiative processes, Stratospheric dynamics, Climate change and variability, Climatology, General circulation, Ocean/atmosphere interactions, Regional modeling, Theoretical modeling, OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL, Climate and interannual variability, Numerical modeling, NATURAL HAZARDS, Atmospheric, Geological, Oceanic, Physical modeling, Climate impact, Risk, Disaster risk analysis and assessment, OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL, Air/sea interactions, Decadal ocean variability, Ocean influence of Earth rotation, Sea level: variations and mean, Surface waves and tides, Tsunamis and storm surges, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, POLICY SCIENCES, Benefit‐cost analysis, RADIO SCIENCE, Radio oceanography, SEISMOLOGY, Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology, Volcano seismology, VOLCANOLOGY, Volcano/climate interactions, Atmospheric effects, Volcano monitoring, Effusive volcanism, Mud volcanism, Explosive volcanism, Volcanic hazards and risks, Research Article, stratosphere, dynamics, radiation, tropics, TTL, ERA5
Sponsorship
Leverhulme Trust (ECF-2018-336)
Isaac Newton Trust (18.08(n))
Identifiers
jgrd57540, 2021jd035548
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035548
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/332382
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Statistics
Total file downloads (since January 2020). For more information on metrics see the
IRUS guide.