Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

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Authors
  Jehn, Florian U
Schneider, Marie
  Wang, Jason R
  Kemp, Luke
  Breuer, Lutz
Publication Date
2021-07-29
Journal Title
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Volume
16
Issue
8
Language
en
Type
Other
This Version
VoR
Metadata
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Citation
Jehn, F. U., Schneider, M., Wang, J. R., Kemp, L., & Breuer, L. (2021). Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research. [Other]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef
Abstract
Abstract: We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.
Keywords
Letter, higher end warming, climate change, IPCC, existential risk
Sponsorship
Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (57526248)
Identifiers
erlac13ef, ac13ef, erl-111061.r2
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef
This record's DOI: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.84491
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
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