Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Authors

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Abstract

Abstract: We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.

Date
2021-07-29
Keywords
Letter, higher end warming, climate change, IPCC, existential risk
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Sponsorship
Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (57526248)