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dc.contributor.authorRyan, Robert G
dc.contributor.authorMarais, Eloise A
dc.contributor.authorBalhatchet, Chloe J
dc.contributor.authorEastham, Sebastian D
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-29T19:45:29Z
dc.date.available2022-06-29T19:45:29Z
dc.date.issued2022-06
dc.date.submitted2022-02-04
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.othereft21072
dc.identifier.other2021ef002612
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/338505
dc.description.abstractDetailed examination of the impact of modern space launches on the Earth's atmosphere is crucial, given booming investment in the space industry and an anticipated space tourism era. We develop air pollutant emissions inventories for rocket launches and re-entry of reusable components and debris in 2019 and for a speculative space tourism scenario based on the recent billionaire space race. This we include in the global GEOS-Chem model coupled to a radiative transfer model to determine the influence on stratospheric ozone (O3) and climate. Due to recent surge in re-entering debris and reusable components, nitrogen oxides from re-entry heating and chlorine from solid fuels contribute equally to all stratospheric O3 depletion by contemporary rockets. Decline in global stratospheric O3 is small (0.01%), but reaches 0.15% in the upper stratosphere (∼5 hPa, 40 km) in spring at 60-90°N after a decade of sustained 5.6% a-1 growth in 2019 launches and re-entries. This increases to 0.24% with a decade of emissions from space tourism rockets, undermining O3 recovery achieved with the Montreal Protocol. Rocket emissions of black carbon (BC) produce substantial global mean radiative forcing of 8 mW m-2 after just 3 years of routine space tourism launches. This is a much greater contribution to global radiative forcing (6%) than emissions (0.02%) of all other BC sources, as radiative forcing per unit mass emitted is ∼500 times more than surface and aviation sources. The O3 damage and climate effect we estimate should motivate regulation of an industry poised for rapid growth.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
dc.subjectMiddle atmosphere: composition and chemistry
dc.subjectResearch Article
dc.subjectozone depletion
dc.subjectblack carbon
dc.subjectradiative forcing
dc.subjectspace tourism
dc.subjectrockets
dc.subjectGEOS‐Chem
dc.titleImpact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate.
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2022-06-29T19:45:29Z
prism.issueIdentifier6
prism.publicationNameEarths Future
prism.volume10
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.85918
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-05-31
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1029/2021EF002612
rioxxterms.versionAO
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidRyan, Robert G [0000-0002-0806-4880]
dc.contributor.orcidMarais, Eloise A [0000-0001-5477-8051]
dc.contributor.orcidBalhatchet, Chloe J [0000-0001-9159-1384]
dc.contributor.orcidEastham, Sebastian D [0000-0002-2476-4801]
dc.identifier.eissn2328-4277
pubs.funder-project-idEC |H2020 |H2020 Priority Excellent Science |H2020 European Research Council (851854)
cam.issuedOnline2022-06-24


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