One step forward, two steps back: centring the state in the hybrid logics of US decarbonization

Abstract

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) shifted the dial on American climate policy. What are its implications for the environmental state? I assess the theory’s suitability for understanding US decarbonization. Environmental state literature understates security motivations, hybrid logics, and scalar pressures driving energy transition. Correctively, I foreground a Hobbesian–Hamiltonian ‘sovereignty – security – prosperity’ nexus anchoring the state’s governing legitimacy. Linking Hobbesian and Hamiltonian ideas, I show how the Biden administration’s Neo-Hamiltonian discourse reactivated this nexus, prompted by a new global conjuncture and diverse scalar pressures. Neo-Hamiltonian strategy responded selectively to decarbonization pressures, while legitimizing environmental limitations by fusing fossil energy, security, and economic prosperity to subordinate climate goals. It gave American transition strategy a ‘one step forward, two steps back’ character – decarbonizing domestically while intensifying fossil fuel exports. This strategic pragmatism threatens ecological calamity. The IRA reveals rising contestation, polarization, and potential reversal of environmental state trajectories.