Physical activity and preventable premature deaths from non-communicable diseases in Brazil.

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Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de 
Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro 
Mielke, Grégore Iven 
Lee, Dong Hoon 
Giovannucci, Edward 

BACKGROUND: Studies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature. We estimated preventable premature deaths from NCDs (diabetes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and breast and colon cancers) in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity (i) to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels; (ii) reaching the physical activity recommendation; (iii) reducing insufficient physical activity by 10%; and (iv) eliminating the gender differences in physical activity. METHODS: Preventable fractions were estimated using data from a nationally representative survey, relative risks from a meta-analysis and number of premature deaths (30-69 years) from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. RESULTS: Physical activity could potentially avoid up to 16 700 premature deaths from NCDs in Brazil, corresponding to 5.75 and 3.23% of premature deaths from major NCDs and of all-causes, respectively. Other scenarios suggested the following impact on premature deaths: reaching physical activity recommendation (5000 or 1.74% of major NCDs); 10% reduction in insufficient physical activity (500 or 0.17% of major NCDs); eliminating gender differences in physical activity (1000 or 0.33% of major NCDs). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity may play an important role to reduce premature deaths from NCD in Brazil.

epidemiology, non-communicable diseases, physical activity, population attributable fraction, premature mortality, Adult, Aged, Brazil, Chronic Disease, Exercise, Female, Health Behavior, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Premature, Noncommunicable Diseases, Sex Distribution
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J Public Health (Oxf)
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
Wellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G007462/1)
Medical Research Council (MR/K023187/1)