Countable additivity, idealization, and conceptual realism


Type
Article
Change log
Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pThis paper addresses the issue of finite versus countable additivity in Bayesian probability and decision theory – in particular, Savage’s theory of subjective expected utility and personal probability. I show that Savage’s reason for not requiring countable additivity in his theory is inconclusive. The assessment leads to an analysis of various highly idealized assumptions commonly adopted in Bayesian theory, where I argue that a healthy dose of, what I call, conceptual realism is often helpful in understanding the interpretational value of sophisticated mathematical structures employed in applied sciences like decision theory. In the last part, I introduce countable additivity into Savage’s theory and explore some technical properties in relation to other axioms of the system.</jats:p>

Description
Keywords
countable additivity, foundations of probability, Bayesian decision theory, idealization, conceptual realism
Journal Title
Economics and Philosophy
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0266-2671
1474-0028
Volume Title
36
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Sponsorship
Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF) (177155)
Isaac Newton Trust (18.08(o))
Leverhulme Trust (ECF-2018-305)
The Leverhulme Trust